驱动精灵
German exports to China fall over 12% in H1 as industrial upgrading reshapes trade structure; cooperation remains vital: expert_我的网站
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German exports to China fell year-on-year in the first half of 2026, pointing to a deeper restructuring of bilateral trade as China moves up the manufacturing value chain, Chinese analysts said. They also cautioned that the decline should not be read as diminishing China's importance to German businesses, given the deep economic ties and the continued benefits of cooperation for both sides.
Germany's first-half exports to China fell by more than 12 percent year-on-year to just under 37 billion euros ($43 billion), while imports from China rose 8.9 percent to 91.8 billion euros, according to data from Germany Trade & Invest (GTAI) cited by Reuters on Sunday. Germany's trade deficit with China widened to about 55 billion euros from 40 billion euros a year earlier, the report said.
Reuters cited Corinne Abele, GTAI's East Asia expert, as pointing to weaker domestic demand and the fact that German companies are increasingly producing inside China.
Commerzbank economist Vincent Stamer said that China's diminishing reliance on Germany showed that the country is becoming more independent of Western powers and catching up technologically, according to Reuters.
China has continued to strengthen its capabilities in sectors including new-energy vehicles, artificial intelligence and advanced manufacturing, enabling more products and technologies that previously depended on imports to be supplied domestically, Zhao Junjie, a senior research fellow at the Institute of European Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told the Global Times on Sunday.
"This means the structure of China-Germany trade is changing," Zhao said, noting that as Chinese industries move up the value chain, China's reliance on some German industrial products is declining, while Chinese companies are becoming more competitive in sectors where German manufacturers traditionally enjoyed strong advantages.
In a position paper released on July 28, China's Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) said that the rapid growth of China's modern industries is driven by innovation, with nationwide research and development (R&D) spending growing by an average of 10 percent annually during the 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-25) period.
The changing trade trend is also linked to Germany's own industrial competitiveness and policy environment, Zhao said, noting that high energy costs, demographic pressures and slower investment in some emerging technologies have weighed on the country's industrial upgrading and innovation.
At the same time, political and security considerations have increasingly shaped Germany's economic policy toward China, as Berlin has moved closer to the broader US and EU "de-risking" agenda, Zhao said.
"Such policies can be a double-edged sword, raising costs for German companies in China and disrupting bilateral economic cooperation while seeking to pressure Chinese industries."
However, it is notable that overall China-Germany trade remained substantial. Total bilateral trade exceeded 128 billion euros in the first half, about 3 billion euros more than Germany's trade with the US, according to Reuters.
China overtook the US as Germany's top trading partner in 2025 after US President Donald Trump launched sweeping protectionist tariffs that weighed on German exports to the US.
Falling German exports should not be seen as diminishing China's importance to German businesses, especially as bilateral ties are increasingly expanding beyond trade into investment, local production and R&D, analysts said.
German companies invested more than 7 billion euros in China in the first 11 months of 2025, up 55.5 percent from 4.5 billion euros in 2024 and 2023 and hitting a four-year high. German companies are bulking up their China business and adopting "China for China" production strategies partly to reduce exposure to possible tariffs and export restrictions, according to Reuters.
Major German companies are also deepening their presence in China. BASF's Verbund site in Zhanjiang, South China's Guangdong Province went fully operational in March with an investment of 8.7 billion euros, the largest single investment project wholly owned by a German enterprise in China, the Xinhua News Agency reported.
"China and Germany have developed deeply intertwined economic interests over many years," Zhao said. Rather than treating stronger Chinese industries as a reason to reduce cooperation, Germany should adapt to a relationship in which competition increasingly coexists with investment, innovation and industrial collaboration, he noted.
Recent high-level exchanges have also underscored the importance both sides attach to economic ties. During a meeting with German Economy Minister Katherina Reiche in May, Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng said that China and Germany are important economic and trade partners with a solid foundation, enormous potential and strong complementarity, calling on both sides to consolidate cooperation in traditional sectors and tap opportunities in emerging fields, according to the Xinhua News Agency.
Reiche said that the German business community remained confident about China's economic prospects and innovation capabilities and would continue to deepen cooperation, Xinhua reported.
The two sides have also moved to strengthen institutional mechanisms. China and Germany agreed to restart the China-Germany Joint Economic Committee and establish two new working groups on trade and investment and industrial cooperation, according to the MOFCOM.
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北京时间8月2日凌晨，在WTA1000多伦多站资格赛中，郑钦文以3比6、4比6完败于泰国选手塔拉鲁迪，遭遇本赛季第六次“一轮游”。上一次她止步资格赛还要追溯到2021年的斯特拉斯堡站。赛前，因车祸休养数月的功勋教练里巴重回场边，师徒二人过去一周在多伦多封闭训练中重点打磨发球落点与关键分处理——恰恰是本场输球的两个命门。这样的结果，比输球本身更令人担忧。因多人退赛，现世界排名第123位的郑钦文压哨递补进入多伦多站资格赛，且只赢一场就能跻身正赛。多伦多之旅也被外界认为是其提升世界排名的良机。不过，资格赛的对手塔拉鲁迪绝非泛泛之辈。这位身高仅1米71的22岁球员是资格赛2号种子、泰国头号女单，有着扎实的底线相持和极低的非受迫性失误，今年上升势头极为凶猛，本赛季已斩获38胜15负，手握伊斯坦布尔和奥斯汀两座WTA125冠军，温网闯入第二轮，现世界排名第78位。面对这样一位状态正佳的对手，郑钦文本应以稳定的发球建立优势、以多变的进攻撕开防线——但全场46%的一发进球率、零破发点的尴尬数据，恰恰说明她最锋利的武器全部哑火。第一盘第6局被破，第二盘第5局双误送出发球局，两盘走势惊人相似：僵持、被破、无力回破。全场接一发仅得2分，意味着在对手的发球局她几乎无法构成威胁。当赖以生存的进攻体系全面失灵时，比赛便成了一场慢性失血的消耗战。郑钦文赖以成名的，是一套“高风险、高回报”的进攻哲学——以暴力发球开路，以极限落点施压，用摧枯拉朽的攻势压制对手。这套打法曾帮她闯入大满贯决赛、拿下奥运金牌、跻身世界前四。但问题在于，这套体系的容错空间极小，需要力量、步伐、手感三者精密咬合。
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三 | 华盛顿站她轰出14记ACE和35个制胜分，却也送出46个非受迫性失误；到了多伦多，发球这一根基一旦松动，后续的战术链条便全面断裂。更致命的是，当这套“A计划”失效时，她缺少行之有效的B计划——既无法通过安全球过渡寻找机会，也缺乏切削变化打乱对手节奏。全场面对对手稳定的底线回球，她始终未能找到破局之策。比技术更难以弥合的，是心态上的裂痕。赛季初她多次承认“比赛心态急躁，总想依靠两三拍进攻终结对手”，急躁导致失误，失误加剧急躁，恶性循环。到了华盛顿站，她又说“整场比赛都很平静”——但平静的结果是“没能再多逼自己一把”。从急躁到平静过头，看似两极，实则如同一枚硬币的两面，她正在失去对关键分的掌控感。输掉这场资格赛后她直言：“现阶段我的赛场状态和心气都存在很大问题。
四 | ”“心气没了”——这句话比任何技术统计都刺眼。排名从世界第4跌至第123位，法网、温网接连一轮游，本赛季6次“一场出局”——每一场失利都在加重心理负担。当一位以进攻见长的球员在场上失去侵略性，失去敢赢的决心，技术上的调整便无从谈起。里巴回来了，这当然重要。
五 | 但这场失利清晰地表明：郑钦文的困境，不是换一个人站在场边就能解决的。她需要重新审视那套曾带给她一切、如今却成为枷锁的打法，更需要找到一种方式——在急躁与平静之间，重新锚定自己的内心。从巅峰到谷底，这条路她走过了。如何走回来，才是真正的考验。
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Published on:07:39:27